• Market Recap

    Posted on August 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Tariffs, Trade, and Argentinian Turmoil   It has been a wild couple weeks in the markets as investors have been caught in the crossfire of slowing global growth, flattening yield curves, and trade war uncertainty. The latest bout of volatility was set off when the Trump Administration announced they would slap tariffs on all of China’s exports. There was a brief respite then Trump decided to delay the hike on many consumer…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on July 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   U.S. Consumers Spend, German Manufacturing Slumps   It was an eventful week so let’s get started.   First, U.S. growth is plodding along just fine if the second quarter GDP number is anything to go by. The first estimate for growth came in at +2.1%, modestly better than expected. As you can see below, growth cooled from the pace set in the first quarter, but it was nowhere near as weak as…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on July 19, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Manufacturing Drags on Global Growth   Things were pretty quiet on the economic news front. One of the notable reports during the week was the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator (LEI). Adding to the view that second quarter growth will be soft, the LEI for June fell for the first time this year, pulled down by weak building permits, ISM numbers, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The decline was small (you…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on July 12, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   July Looks Like a Done Deal   For the most part it was a quiet summer week in the markets. Really the highlight (other than a great stage 6 at the Tour de France) was Chairman Powell’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday in front of Congress. Over the last few weeks the market had moved strongly to price in rate cuts from the Fed in the second half of this year. If…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on June 21, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Central Banks Start to Capitulate   This was quite a week. We all know you can get some big market movements during times of crisis. That’s to be expected. But you don’t generally see big shifts during sleepy summer months when half the world (or at least France) is on vacation and the economic backdrop is blah (not great, but not bad).   But central banks can still surprise us. Things kicked…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on May 31, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   More Trade Turbulence   All that mattered for the markets and investors this week was the direction of trade policy. Up until Thursday night it was trade with China and the falling odds of a ‘deal’ anytime soon that captured headlines. However, on Thursday seemingly out of left field Trump tweeted his plan to slap tariffs on Mexico.   This took almost everyone by surprise.   Up until now investors thought we…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on May 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Markets Buffeted by Trade   Global equity markets were down this week as jitters about the trade war with China increased. The Trump administration upped the ante last Friday by blacklisting Huawei. As a result, US chipmakers, including Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx and Broadcom, have suspended supplying Huawei with semiconductors – a devastating blow to the Chinese telco. What’s still unclear is just how far each country will go in this war of attrition….
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on May 10, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Trump’s Tweets Torpedoes Trade   For the market the only news item of importance concerned trade and Trump’s tweets on the matter. Hopes for an imminent end to the trade war with China were dashed on Sunday night when the President threated to hike tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods and begin proceedings to tax the remaining $325bn of imports not currently subject to tariffs.   Global equites sold off on the…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on May 3, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Sugar Sugar….   Think back to music in 1969. Hits included Honky Tonk Woman by The Stones, Suspicious Minds by Elvis, Proud Mary by CCR, Get Back by the Beatles. Some classic tunes that have stood the test of time. And then you have this.   Sugar, ah honey honey You are my candy girl And you got me wanting you   The Archies, 1969  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSP0e5rXUl8)   This was #1 in the…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Earnings – Is This the Trough?   You can probably tell by the headlines that we are in the middle of earnings season. Intel whiffed big time and the stock was hit with a 2X4 on Friday. Tesla was entertaining this week as usual. But in general, these high-profile shortfalls have been the exception – results are coming in better than expected.   In the U.S. about a third of companies have reported…
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