• Market Update

    Posted on May 11, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      It was a broadly positive week for the equity markets. Domestic stocks were up +2.0% to +2.5% while the overseas markets lagged modestly. For all the uncertainty about trade policy and geopolitics, the markets have been buoyed by robust earnings reports and a raft of share buyback announcements.   This week’s tamer than expected inflation report calmed the bond market, at least temporarily. Both 2-year and 10-year yields drifted higher and most bond categories…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on April 27, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      A lot of back and forth this week but stocks really didn’t go anywhere. The S&P 500 and EAFE were basically unchanged and small-cap U.S. stocks lagged modestly. Jitters about rising interest rates were largely offset by decent earnings reports (more below) and a lessening of tensions on the Korean Peninsula (who would have thought?).   10-year Treasury bond yields briefly surmounted the 3% threshold for the first time since 2014, as you can…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on April 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      It was a decent week for the global equity markets with broad based gains. The S&P and developed EAFE index both advanced +2.0% while small-cap U.S. equities modestly outperformed. Commodities performed well given the over +10% rally in crude oil. Interest rates ticked higher and intermediate-term government bonds lost -0.3%. Low quality high-yield bonds performed strongly, though, with a +1.2% gain for the week.   Conflicting Themes   In our latest quarterly letter, which…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 23, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Market Recap Tough week for the equity markets. For the week the S&P lost -6.0% while small-caps were hit for -4.8%. The international markets were down between -3.6% and -4.7%, less than U.S. large-caps due in part to a weak dollar. Worries about trade wars and the Fed conspired to drive prices lower, and significant cracks in certain social media stocks didn’t help confidence (Facebook lost -13.9% this week). But despite the roughly 1,150 point…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      The Inflation Trade Takes a Pause   One of the big market stories this year has been the rise in bond yields. This has led to modest losses for government bonds and is one of the reasons the equity market corrected in February. The bond narrative has gone something like this:   – Growth is going to boom because of the tax cuts…   – …which means faster inflation given that unemployment is down…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      Well, the streak had to come to an end. The market decline in February ended the longest run of positive months on record. It was nice while it lasted!     The reasons are well known. Bubbling fears about inflation pushed bond yields up. Expectations for Fed policy were ratcheted up a notch as a result, especially after the massive budget deal a couple weeks ago. And just to keep things interesting, on the…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    The equity markets bounced back handsomely this week. The S&P rallied +4.3% over the last five days while small-caps bounced +4.2%. EM was a standout with a +6.7% weekly gain. Interestingly, stocks were able to rally despite rising yields. The correction a week ago was blamed to some extent on rising yields. But that didn’t matter this week. Hotter than expected inflation numbers pushed the yield on the 10-year to 2.88%, up +5bps on the…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 9, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      Now that was a wild week. Coming into Friday the S&P 500 had closed down seven of the previous nine trading sessions, including drops of 1.1%, 2.1%, 3.8%, and 4.1%. This last selloff was the biggest one-day decline since 2011. We are now officially in ‘correction’ territory for the first time in two years. From the high the S&P was down -11.8% at Friday’s low before the markets bounced, while the EAFE and emerging…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

      After a torrid start to the year, global stock markets corrected this week. The immediate catalyst was rising bond yields around the world. For the week the S&P 500 dipped -3.9% while small-cap stocks were hit for -3.8%. The developed EAFE declined in line with the U.S. indexes while emerging equities fell -5.8%.   The Fed met this week and left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, this didn’t prevent longer-term bond yields from…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on January 19, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Equity markets continued their winning ways this week with the S&P gaining +0.9% while small-cap equities advanced +0.3%. The international markets were also solid – the EAFE was up +0.8% and the EM index +1.9%. We are early in the early inning of fourth quarter earnings reports, but the most interesting aspect will be what companies do with the tax cut proceeds. There are two broad themes coming to light:   1) We are seeing…
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