Category Archives: Current Events

Market Recap

Posted on July 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  U.S. Consumers Spend, German Manufacturing Slumps   It was an eventful week so let’s get started.   First, U.S. growth is plodding along just fine if the second quarter GDP number is anything to go by. The first estimate for growth came in at +2.1%, modestly better than expected. As you can see below, growth cooled from the pace set in the first quarter, but it was nowhere near as weak as many were…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 19, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Manufacturing Drags on Global Growth   Things were pretty quiet on the economic news front. One of the notable reports during the week was the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator (LEI). Adding to the view that second quarter growth will be soft, the LEI for June fell for the first time this year, pulled down by weak building permits, ISM numbers, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The decline was small (you have to…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 12, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  July Looks Like a Done Deal   For the most part it was a quiet summer week in the markets. Really the highlight (other than a great stage 6 at the Tour de France) was Chairman Powell’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday in front of Congress. Over the last few weeks the market had moved strongly to price in rate cuts from the Fed in the second half of this year. If he was…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 21, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Central Banks Start to Capitulate   This was quite a week. We all know you can get some big market movements during times of crisis. That’s to be expected. But you don’t generally see big shifts during sleepy summer months when half the world (or at least France) is on vacation and the economic backdrop is blah (not great, but not bad).   But central banks can still surprise us. Things kicked off on…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

Markets Buffeted by Trade   Global equity markets were down this week as jitters about the trade war with China increased. The Trump administration upped the ante last Friday by blacklisting Huawei. As a result, US chipmakers, including Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx and Broadcom, have suspended supplying Huawei with semiconductors – a devastating blow to the Chinese telco. What’s still unclear is just how far each country will go in this war of attrition. With no…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Trump’s Tweets Torpedoes Trade   For the market the only news item of importance concerned trade and Trump’s tweets on the matter. Hopes for an imminent end to the trade war with China were dashed on Sunday night when the President threated to hike tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods and begin proceedings to tax the remaining $325bn of imports not currently subject to tariffs.   Global equites sold off on the news and…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Sugar Sugar….   Think back to music in 1969. Hits included Honky Tonk Woman by The Stones, Suspicious Minds by Elvis, Proud Mary by CCR, Get Back by the Beatles. Some classic tunes that have stood the test of time. And then you have this.   Sugar, ah honey honey You are my candy girl And you got me wanting you   The Archies, 1969  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSP0e5rXUl8)   This was #1 in the U.S. for…
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Market Recap

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

Earnings – Is This the Trough?   You can probably tell by the headlines that we are in the middle of earnings season. Intel whiffed big time and the stock was hit with a 2X4 on Friday. Tesla was entertaining this week as usual. But in general, these high-profile shortfalls have been the exception – results are coming in better than expected.   In the U.S. about a third of companies have reported so far…
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Market Recap

Posted on April 12, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

The market closed on a solid note Friday. J.P. Morgan kicked off earnings season and handily beat estimates. Wells Fargo’s earnings were in-line but revenue growth was better than expected. Overnight, Chinese credit growth grew more than originally thought, leading some to think the worst of the slowdown is over in China. Finally, Chevron’s bid for Anadarko Petroleum brought back memories of the M&A days. For the week the developed global indexes gained fractions while…
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Market Recap

Posted on March 29, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

The first quarter ended on a solid note with most equity markets bouncing back from last week’s selling. For the week the S&P picked up +1.2% to bring the first quarter return to +13.1%. The returns for global equities are +0.6% and +11.8% respectively. Not bad considering. As it turns out, this was the 9th best start to the year since 1928, as you can see below.     Bond yields dipped modestly again this…
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