Category Archives: Current Events

Market Recap

Posted on July 31, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Weekly Recap   Something of a mixed week in the markets with growth/tech doing well while small and value underperformed. The major economic news obviously was the first take on second quarter GDP. As expected – it stunk!!   The size of the U.S. economy between March and June shrunk by -32.9% (blue line below) at an annualized rate. The change year-over-year was -9.5% (red line below).     This is one for…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 17, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Weekly Recap   The equity markets continue to churn in a range between 3,000 and 3250 on the S&P 500. The rapid advance in April and May ground to a halt as infection rates started to trend up in June. On the economic front the general theme is a moderation in the V-like bounce off the March lows.   For example, the latest manufacturing reports from around the country shows that this sector is…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 26, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Weekly Recap   I’m probably not alone thinking that 2020 is starting to feel like the longest year ever. We are only just approaching the half-way point. With two more trading days to go in the quarter, the markets seem to be closing on a soft note. Global equities dipped this week on renewed fears about 1) rising COVID infection rates in the U.S., and 2) the possibility of more trade battles heading into…
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Asset Class Review for the Week Ending 6/19/20

Posted on June 19, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

Equities started the day in the green, but steadily lost ground throughout the trading session. Despite today’s slip up, most asset classes finished the week with a positive return.     Below is a brief weekly recap of  the major asset classes.   Equities   NASDAQ   The NASDAQ led the pack this week thanks in part to stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Facebook.     Because these 4 stocks make up about one-third…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 12, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Weekly Recap   After three straight up weeks the markets corrected sharply on Thursday. An up-move in COVID-19 infections in some US states triggered worries about a second wave of the virus. Global equities moved broadly lower with only government bonds and precious metals acting as a safe harbors. It is telling that it doesn’t take much risk aversion to push bond yields towards the lows of this cycle. It wouldn’t take much more…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 5, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Weekly Recap   This marked the third consecutive week of a +3% or greater advance for the S&P 500, leaving many scratching their heads about the disconnect between the markets and the economy. Furthermore, over the last few trading days we’ve seen the economic sensitive sectors such as small-cap and value stocks take the lead from growth stocks. Even airlines have taken off, so to speak, and interest rates have hooked higher on better…
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Asset Class Review – Does Volatility Make Things Seem Worse?

Posted on May 29, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

With all the chaos going on the past few months, we thought it’d be worthwhile to take a step back and look at how all the major asset classes have performed over various time frames. Let’s asses the damage and see if maybe the volatility has made market returns seem worse than they really are.   Year-to-Date     The above chart shows the year-to-date performance of the major asset classes. There have been some…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 22, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Employment and Housing   Solid performance by the global equity markets this week despite lousy news (again) on the jobs front. The weekly unemployment claims number showed that 2.4 million people filed initial claims for the week ended May 16th, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week (chart below).     This report raised the nine-week total to nearly 39 million people. This comes close to 18% of the labor force.    …
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Market Recap

Posted on May 15, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  We Are All Moving On-Line   More confirmation that April was simply a brutal month for the economy came in today’s retail sales number. Sales nosedived a record -16.4% in April, a fair bit worse than expectations for a 12% decline. Sales fell almost 20% year-over-year (chart below).     The only bright spot, as you would expect, were sales at online retailers which surged 8.4%, the second largest increase on record. On-line sales…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 9, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

  Well we knew the monthly employment report would be bad. And Friday’s report certainly was. U.S. unemployment surged to 14.7% (chart below), its highest level since the second world war, after 20.5m people lost their jobs in April. The fall in non-farm payrolls in April was the largest drop on record.     Job losses were widespread. Key industries hit hard were:   Food services -5.5mn Retail -2.1mn Healthcare providers -2.1mn (this is a…
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