Category Archives: Market Recap

Market Recap

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Is Growth and Inflation Softening at the Margin?   The equity markets were generally higher this week while bonds lost ground. For the week the S&P added +1.2% and small-caps gained +0.5%. The overseas markets also performed well with the EAFE up +2.0% and emerging +1.0%.   In general, the economic reports have been decent with growth a touch on the soft side and inflation moderating, at least for a month. Big picture wise,…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 17, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  August has a habit of throwing up surprises for investors. Those of a certain age might remember Augusts of 1998 (Russian default), 2007 (first redemption freeze of sub-prime crisis), 2011 (U.S. sovereign downgrade) and 2015 (renminbi devaluation/S&P 500 flash crash). The chart below shows the drawdowns in equities, EM assets, and hedge funds in each August going back to 1997.     This August is giving us another emerging market scare. The currencies of…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 3, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  A mixed week for equities. U.S. stocks were generally higher with the S&P picking up +0.8% and small-caps +0.6%. The NASDAQ managed a +1.0% gain as Apple’s market cap surpassed $1 trillion as you can see below – read more here, the first U.S. company to achieve this feat.     It is hard to believe that Steve Jobs died in 2011 when Apple had a market cap of ‘just’ $300bn.   International equities,…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 27, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Corporate Earnings – A Solid Foundation   If you are a Facebook investor, it was a tough week. The stock opened Thursday morning 20% lower than where it closed on Wednesday. As part of its second quarter earnings report it predicted slower growth in future quarters.     For all the wailing, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the shares had been on a tear going into this week. Before the earnings…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Inflation Heats Up – Bond Yields Go Nowhere   Sometimes the link between the economic data and the market reaction can leave you scratching your head. For example, this week’s inflation report was on the hot side. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of +2.8% in June while the core rate was up +2.0%. Both were slightly above expectations. The graph below shows four different measures of inflation, but you…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 29, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Stocks were broadly lower this week as trade worries sat heavily on investor’s minds. For the week the S&P lost -1.3% while small-caps dipped -2.5%. For the first time in a while the international markets were in line with the domestic. Both the EAFE and emerging markets indexes were off about -1.3%. The Chinese market cleared a notable hurdle – it officially fell into bear market territory this week with losses from January high…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 22, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  A New Recession Call   With President Trump’s new trade agenda and fears about Fed policy inverting the yield curve, the drumbeat of recession calls is picking up.   This week David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates garnered a lot of attention by calling for a recession in 12 months (read more here).   Rosenberg has been unfairly tarred as a perma-bear over the years. He was certainly bearish in the late 90’s…
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Market Update

Posted on June 15, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was obviously a busy news week.  The Trump/Kim meeting garnered a lot of attention early on, and then of course there is the World Cup.  But market wise, there were four key items:   Inflation report   The Fed meeting   European Central Bank (ECB) meeting   Trade Policy   Inflation – Drifting Higher   There was another sign that inflation is percolating this week.  The CPI report for May showed that inflation…
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Market Update

Posted on June 1, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  The markets were pulled back and forth on political uncertainty this week. First, Italy sparked euro breakup fears again as a new coalition government looked like it might fail. Then the U.S. administration upped the ‘trade war’ rhetoric. Despite the political uncertainty, equities in the U.S. managed to gain ground, with the S&P 500 adding +0.5% while small-cap U.S. stocks advanced +1.3% and the NASDAQ +1.6%. The overseas markets were weaker with the developed…
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Market Update

Posted on May 11, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was a broadly positive week for the equity markets. Domestic stocks were up +2.0% to +2.5% while the overseas markets lagged modestly. For all the uncertainty about trade policy and geopolitics, the markets have been buoyed by robust earnings reports and a raft of share buyback announcements.   This week’s tamer than expected inflation report calmed the bond market, at least temporarily. Both 2-year and 10-year yields drifted higher and most bond categories…
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