Category Archives: Market Recap

Market Recap

Posted on July 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Inflation Heats Up – Bond Yields Go Nowhere   Sometimes the link between the economic data and the market reaction can leave you scratching your head. For example, this week’s inflation report was on the hot side. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of +2.8% in June while the core rate was up +2.0%. Both were slightly above expectations. The graph below shows four different measures of inflation, but you…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 29, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Stocks were broadly lower this week as trade worries sat heavily on investor’s minds. For the week the S&P lost -1.3% while small-caps dipped -2.5%. For the first time in a while the international markets were in line with the domestic. Both the EAFE and emerging markets indexes were off about -1.3%. The Chinese market cleared a notable hurdle – it officially fell into bear market territory this week with losses from January high…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 22, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  A New Recession Call   With President Trump’s new trade agenda and fears about Fed policy inverting the yield curve, the drumbeat of recession calls is picking up.   This week David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates garnered a lot of attention by calling for a recession in 12 months (read more here).   Rosenberg has been unfairly tarred as a perma-bear over the years. He was certainly bearish in the late 90’s…
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Market Update

Posted on June 15, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was obviously a busy news week.  The Trump/Kim meeting garnered a lot of attention early on, and then of course there is the World Cup.  But market wise, there were four key items:   Inflation report   The Fed meeting   European Central Bank (ECB) meeting   Trade Policy   Inflation – Drifting Higher   There was another sign that inflation is percolating this week.  The CPI report for May showed that inflation…
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Market Update

Posted on June 1, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  The markets were pulled back and forth on political uncertainty this week. First, Italy sparked euro breakup fears again as a new coalition government looked like it might fail. Then the U.S. administration upped the ‘trade war’ rhetoric. Despite the political uncertainty, equities in the U.S. managed to gain ground, with the S&P 500 adding +0.5% while small-cap U.S. stocks advanced +1.3% and the NASDAQ +1.6%. The overseas markets were weaker with the developed…
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Market Update

Posted on May 11, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was a broadly positive week for the equity markets. Domestic stocks were up +2.0% to +2.5% while the overseas markets lagged modestly. For all the uncertainty about trade policy and geopolitics, the markets have been buoyed by robust earnings reports and a raft of share buyback announcements.   This week’s tamer than expected inflation report calmed the bond market, at least temporarily. Both 2-year and 10-year yields drifted higher and most bond categories…
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Market Update

Posted on April 27, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  A lot of back and forth this week but stocks really didn’t go anywhere. The S&P 500 and EAFE were basically unchanged and small-cap U.S. stocks lagged modestly. Jitters about rising interest rates were largely offset by decent earnings reports (more below) and a lessening of tensions on the Korean Peninsula (who would have thought?).   10-year Treasury bond yields briefly surmounted the 3% threshold for the first time since 2014, as you can…
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Market Update

Posted on April 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was a decent week for the global equity markets with broad based gains. The S&P and developed EAFE index both advanced +2.0% while small-cap U.S. equities modestly outperformed. Commodities performed well given the over +10% rally in crude oil. Interest rates ticked higher and intermediate-term government bonds lost -0.3%. Low quality high-yield bonds performed strongly, though, with a +1.2% gain for the week.   Conflicting Themes   In our latest quarterly letter, which…
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Market Update

Posted on March 23, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

Market Recap Tough week for the equity markets. For the week the S&P lost -6.0% while small-caps were hit for -4.8%. The international markets were down between -3.6% and -4.7%, less than U.S. large-caps due in part to a weak dollar. Worries about trade wars and the Fed conspired to drive prices lower, and significant cracks in certain social media stocks didn’t help confidence (Facebook lost -13.9% this week). But despite the roughly 1,150 point…
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Market Update

Posted on March 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Well, the streak had to come to an end. The market decline in February ended the longest run of positive months on record. It was nice while it lasted!     The reasons are well known. Bubbling fears about inflation pushed bond yields up. Expectations for Fed policy were ratcheted up a notch as a result, especially after the massive budget deal a couple weeks ago. And just to keep things interesting, on the…
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