Category Archives: Markets

Market Recap

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Economic Recap – Faint Hints of a Trough   The large-cap domestic equity indexes continued to push to new highs this week. It’s always hard to peg why the markets do what they do short-term, but these three reasons have to rank reasonably high on any list:   – Optimism that a trade deal of some sort gets done before year-end.   – Chairman Powell talked again this week and basically said there are…
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Market Recap

Posted on November 1, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Economic Recap – Faint Hints of a Trough   A number of key economic reports this week:   Decent Growth in Q3   The advance estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 1.9%, a modest dip from 2.0% in Q2, but well ahead of expectations of 1.6%.     Manufacturing Recession Continues   The ISM manufacturing index increased for the first time since March but remains in contraction mode. To early to call a…
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Market Recap

Posted on October 4, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   It was one of those weeks where underwhelming economic news morphed into decent news for the markets simply because it meant more love from global central banks. This trumped (that’s almost unforgivable, I know) impeachment talk, and don’t even start on the Saudi attacks – that seems like a lifetime ago!   On the economic front we found out manufacturing really stinks (I guess we sort of knew that already)…
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Market Recap

Posted on September 20, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   The focus this week, at least as far as the markets are concerned, was meant to be one thing and one thing only – the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. But when the futures opened Sunday evening it was all about oil. Oil prices soared following a drone attack on the Abqaiq oil-processing plant and the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia on Saturday. At one-point oil surged as much…
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Investing in ETFs: Are You Really Making A Passive Choice?

Posted on September 19, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

We’ve written in the past on how making assumptions in ETF investing can lead to some interesting surprises (see here and here). There are such a huge number of ETFs available to U.S. investors that its easy to get overwhelmed when trying do decide where to invest your money.     The chart above shows that of the roughly 2,400 ETFs available in the U.S., nearly half (46%) are less than 5 years old! With…
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Market Recap

Posted on September 13, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   It was relatively quiet on the economic news front. Really the only major report was Friday’s retail sales number. Headline retail sales rose 0.4% in August, exceeding economists’ expectations for a 0.2% increase (see chart below). August’s jump was driven by strong sales of motor vehicles and online retailers that was partially offset by weakness at restaurants and clothing stores.     The dynamic of weak manufacturing/solid consumer continues to…
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Market Recap

Posted on September 6, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   Market gyrations this week illustrated how short-term market movements are being held hostage by the trade headlines. So called news like the headline below was enough to push stocks higher and bond prices lower for the week.     Not sure what makes them reliable, but regardless it does appear that trade negotiations will resume on October 5th for what that is worth. But we have been trapped in this…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 30, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   This was a much quieter week compared to last week. The equity indexes bounced around and bond yields continued to drift lower globally, but the palpable sense of anxiety from last week didn’t carry over. Whether the hints of calm on the trade front are true or not, they were quickly embraced by investors. Now whether Lucy snatches Charlies Brown’s ball away again is an open question.   There wasn’t…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 23, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Week in Review   What would a week be like without some inflammatory tweets and associated market volatility? I guess that is so 2013!!   Coming into this week the main focus was on the Fed’s Jackson Hole retreat and what Chairman Powell might say about future policy. When all was said and done he didn’t say much new, however President Trump more than made up for the lack of headlines. But first, a…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  U.S. Consumers Spend, German Manufacturing Slumps   It was an eventful week so let’s get started.   First, U.S. growth is plodding along just fine if the second quarter GDP number is anything to go by. The first estimate for growth came in at +2.1%, modestly better than expected. As you can see below, growth cooled from the pace set in the first quarter, but it was nowhere near as weak as many were…
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