Category Archives: Readings

Market Recap

Posted on July 19, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Manufacturing Drags on Global Growth   Things were pretty quiet on the economic news front. One of the notable reports during the week was the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator (LEI). Adding to the view that second quarter growth will be soft, the LEI for June fell for the first time this year, pulled down by weak building permits, ISM numbers, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The decline was small (you have to…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 12, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  July Looks Like a Done Deal   For the most part it was a quiet summer week in the markets. Really the highlight (other than a great stage 6 at the Tour de France) was Chairman Powell’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday in front of Congress. Over the last few weeks the market had moved strongly to price in rate cuts from the Fed in the second half of this year. If he was…
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Market Recap

Posted on June 21, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Central Banks Start to Capitulate   This was quite a week. We all know you can get some big market movements during times of crisis. That’s to be expected. But you don’t generally see big shifts during sleepy summer months when half the world (or at least France) is on vacation and the economic backdrop is blah (not great, but not bad).   But central banks can still surprise us. Things kicked off on…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

Markets Buffeted by Trade   Global equity markets were down this week as jitters about the trade war with China increased. The Trump administration upped the ante last Friday by blacklisting Huawei. As a result, US chipmakers, including Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx and Broadcom, have suspended supplying Huawei with semiconductors – a devastating blow to the Chinese telco. What’s still unclear is just how far each country will go in this war of attrition. With no…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Trump’s Tweets Torpedoes Trade   For the market the only news item of importance concerned trade and Trump’s tweets on the matter. Hopes for an imminent end to the trade war with China were dashed on Sunday night when the President threated to hike tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods and begin proceedings to tax the remaining $325bn of imports not currently subject to tariffs.   Global equites sold off on the news and…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Sugar Sugar….   Think back to music in 1969. Hits included Honky Tonk Woman by The Stones, Suspicious Minds by Elvis, Proud Mary by CCR, Get Back by the Beatles. Some classic tunes that have stood the test of time. And then you have this.   Sugar, ah honey honey You are my candy girl And you got me wanting you   The Archies, 1969  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSP0e5rXUl8)   This was #1 in the U.S. for…
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Market Recap

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

Earnings – Is This the Trough?   You can probably tell by the headlines that we are in the middle of earnings season. Intel whiffed big time and the stock was hit with a 2X4 on Friday. Tesla was entertaining this week as usual. But in general, these high-profile shortfalls have been the exception – results are coming in better than expected.   In the U.S. about a third of companies have reported so far…
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Market Recap

Posted on March 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

It was an eventful week for the markets given the Fed announcement on Wednesday and then a key move in interest rates Friday. The Fed really didn’t surprise. As expected they kept rates stable and signaled they probably won’t do much all of this year (more below). Probably more eventful was the push lower in longer-term interest rates around the world. Equities around the world were weaker with the S&P losing -0.8% over the last…
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Lessons From A Bond King’s Fall From Grace

Posted on February 22, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

This isn’t so much beating a guy while he is down, but more a cautionary tale for us all. There but for the grace type of thing.   Bill Gross was close to a god in this business for decades. He helped co-found PIMCO over 40 years ago and built it into a $2 trillion firm at the peak. He was the first Bond King. There was even a book about him when he had…
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Market Recap

Posted on January 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Equities had another solid week with the S&P picking up +2.9% while the NASDAQ added +2.7%. All the global indexes are in the black for the year after the drubbing they took in December. Bond yields have drifted modestly higher, but the moves have been relatively small. Credit has bounced back with the equity market – high-yield is up +4.2% so far this year. Crude oil has rebounded while gold prices have softened.  …
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