Category Archives: Readings

Market Recap

Posted on January 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Equities had another solid week with the S&P picking up +2.9% while the NASDAQ added +2.7%. All the global indexes are in the black for the year after the drubbing they took in December. Bond yields have drifted modestly higher, but the moves have been relatively small. Credit has bounced back with the equity market – high-yield is up +4.2% so far this year. Crude oil has rebounded while gold prices have softened.  …
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Market Recap

Posted on December 28, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  What a crazy week. Sometimes these letters are pretty straightforward. The market did X because Y happened. Other times you are forced to admit you have no clue. This is one of those weeks.   Trading on Christmas eve was brutal. The worst Christmas eve in the Dow’s 122-year history as a matter of fact. Well that’s nice. Certainly, losses on Monday were exacerbated by the ham-handed effort on the part of Treasury Secretary…
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Market Update

Posted on December 20, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It has been a tough few weeks for equity investors with stock prices pushing lower across the board. The large-cap equity indexes such as the S&P 500 have formally hit correction mode (loss greater than 10%) while more volatile indexes like emerging markets and small-caps are in bear territory (loss greater than 20%). While clearly painful for investors, this latest bout of selling isn’t unprecedented. As the table below illustrates, we have seen five…
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Market Recap

Posted on December 7, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  In a way the market has no memory day to day or week to week. And maybe it shouldn’t. But it is a sign of the uncertainty out there that the Dow can swing more than 700 points in the space of just a few hours on Thursday. Or how the S&P can be up +4.8% last week but down -4.6% this week. Trying to read some deep meaning into the daily or even…
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Market Recap

Posted on November 30, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  The equity markets bounced back this week after somewhat soothing comments from the Fed chairman and hopes that this weekend’s meeting between the U.S. and China might start a thaw in trade tensions.  For the week the S&P advanced +4.8% while small-cap stocks gained +3.0%.  It was the best week for the S&P in eight years.  The international markets were similarly positive with the developed EAFE up +1.6% and emerging +3.3%.  Bond yields dipped…
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Powell’s Comments Suggest Dovish Turn

Posted on November 29, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

Chairman Jerome Powell spoke today at the Economic Club of New York and his comments generally surprised markets in that they seemed to suggest current interest rates may be close to neutral. This is a stark contrast from Powell’s October 3rd statement where he said “…we may go past neutral. But we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.” At the time, this was interpreted to mean that markets should expect a steady…
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Market Recap

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It was a volatile week for stocks, bonds, and commodities. Oil prices in particular managed to lose over 8% at one point on Tuesday.  In general stocks were lower while bonds gained ground. Emerging equities stood out with a gain for the week.   Softening Global Growth…   The startling volatility in oil prices reflects at least three things. First, the supply outlook took a bearish turn a few weeks ago. Secondly, speculators in…
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Quick Market Recap & Oil’s Fall From Grace

Posted on November 10, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Markets in general had a decent week. Yes, there was volatility but as of Friday’s close, the S&P ended the week up +2.2%. Despite growth stocks getting clobbered on Friday (the NASDAQ was down -1.7%), their return for the week was +1.3%. The only two major asset classes to suffer meaningful weekly losses were emerging market stocks and commodities (more below), down -2.5% and -1.2% respectively.   Oil’s Fall From Grace   WTI Crude…
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Market Recap

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

Well, that was an interesting 5 days! Here’s how the major asset classes performed during the week (on a total return basis).     The S&P 500 was the worst of the bunch, losing -4%. Developed international and emerging market stocks did a bit better, posting returns of -3.6% and -2.5%, respectively. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 briefly hit correction territory (down -10% from the highs) intraday, it closed just shy of that, down -9.3%…
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Market Recap

Posted on October 19, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Putting the Selloff in Context   The equity markets tried to bounce this week but it all fizzled out by Friday. For the week the S&P was flat while small-cap equities had a fractional loss. The developed overseas markets held up reasonably well, but emerging took another hit. The index was off -1.5% and China slid over -2% for the week.   To put things in perspective, since the equity market high on 9/20/18,…
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