Category Archives: Readings

Market Recap

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Trump’s Tweets Torpedoes Trade   For the market the only news item of importance concerned trade and Trump’s tweets on the matter. Hopes for an imminent end to the trade war with China were dashed on Sunday night when the President threated to hike tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods and begin proceedings to tax the remaining $325bn of imports not currently subject to tariffs.   Global equites sold off on the news and…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Sugar Sugar….   Think back to music in 1969. Hits included Honky Tonk Woman by The Stones, Suspicious Minds by Elvis, Proud Mary by CCR, Get Back by the Beatles. Some classic tunes that have stood the test of time. And then you have this.   Sugar, ah honey honey You are my candy girl And you got me wanting you   The Archies, 1969  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSP0e5rXUl8)   This was #1 in the U.S. for…
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Market Recap

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

Earnings – Is This the Trough?   You can probably tell by the headlines that we are in the middle of earnings season. Intel whiffed big time and the stock was hit with a 2X4 on Friday. Tesla was entertaining this week as usual. But in general, these high-profile shortfalls have been the exception – results are coming in better than expected.   In the U.S. about a third of companies have reported so far…
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Market Recap

Posted on March 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

It was an eventful week for the markets given the Fed announcement on Wednesday and then a key move in interest rates Friday. The Fed really didn’t surprise. As expected they kept rates stable and signaled they probably won’t do much all of this year (more below). Probably more eventful was the push lower in longer-term interest rates around the world. Equities around the world were weaker with the S&P losing -0.8% over the last…
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Lessons From A Bond King’s Fall From Grace

Posted on February 22, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

This isn’t so much beating a guy while he is down, but more a cautionary tale for us all. There but for the grace type of thing.   Bill Gross was close to a god in this business for decades. He helped co-found PIMCO over 40 years ago and built it into a $2 trillion firm at the peak. He was the first Bond King. There was even a book about him when he had…
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Market Recap

Posted on January 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Equities had another solid week with the S&P picking up +2.9% while the NASDAQ added +2.7%. All the global indexes are in the black for the year after the drubbing they took in December. Bond yields have drifted modestly higher, but the moves have been relatively small. Credit has bounced back with the equity market – high-yield is up +4.2% so far this year. Crude oil has rebounded while gold prices have softened.  …
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Market Recap

Posted on December 28, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  What a crazy week. Sometimes these letters are pretty straightforward. The market did X because Y happened. Other times you are forced to admit you have no clue. This is one of those weeks.   Trading on Christmas eve was brutal. The worst Christmas eve in the Dow’s 122-year history as a matter of fact. Well that’s nice. Certainly, losses on Monday were exacerbated by the ham-handed effort on the part of Treasury Secretary…
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Market Update

Posted on December 20, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  It has been a tough few weeks for equity investors with stock prices pushing lower across the board. The large-cap equity indexes such as the S&P 500 have formally hit correction mode (loss greater than 10%) while more volatile indexes like emerging markets and small-caps are in bear territory (loss greater than 20%). While clearly painful for investors, this latest bout of selling isn’t unprecedented. As the table below illustrates, we have seen five…
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Market Recap

Posted on December 7, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  In a way the market has no memory day to day or week to week. And maybe it shouldn’t. But it is a sign of the uncertainty out there that the Dow can swing more than 700 points in the space of just a few hours on Thursday. Or how the S&P can be up +4.8% last week but down -4.6% this week. Trying to read some deep meaning into the daily or even…
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Market Recap

Posted on November 30, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  The equity markets bounced back this week after somewhat soothing comments from the Fed chairman and hopes that this weekend’s meeting between the U.S. and China might start a thaw in trade tensions.  For the week the S&P advanced +4.8% while small-cap stocks gained +3.0%.  It was the best week for the S&P in eight years.  The international markets were similarly positive with the developed EAFE up +1.6% and emerging +3.3%.  Bond yields dipped…
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