• Lessons From A Bond King’s Fall From Grace

    Posted on February 22, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionThis isn’t so much beating a guy while he is down, but more a cautionary tale for us all. There but for the grace type of thing.   Bill Gross was close to a god in this business for decades. He helped co-found PIMCO over 40 years ago and built it into a $2 trillion firm at the peak. He was the first Bond King. There was even a book about him when he…
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  • Waiting Out The Weather

    Posted on February 15, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version“In many ways, the stock market is like the weather in that if you don’t like the current conditions all you have to do is wait awhile.” -Lou Simpson   Lou Simpson is the former CEO of GEICO’s capital operations and at one point was thought to be the successor to Warren Buffett’s perch atop Berkshire Hathaway (they ultimately didn’t choose him because he was only six years Warren’s junior). In any event, Lou’s…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on January 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Equities had another solid week with the S&P picking up +2.9% while the NASDAQ added +2.7%. All the global indexes are in the black for the year after the drubbing they took in December. Bond yields have drifted modestly higher, but the moves have been relatively small. Credit has bounced back with the equity market – high-yield is up +4.2% so far this year. Crude oil has rebounded while gold prices have…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 28, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   What a crazy week. Sometimes these letters are pretty straightforward. The market did X because Y happened. Other times you are forced to admit you have no clue. This is one of those weeks.   Trading on Christmas eve was brutal. The worst Christmas eve in the Dow’s 122-year history as a matter of fact. Well that’s nice. Certainly, losses on Monday were exacerbated by the ham-handed effort on the part of…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on December 20, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It has been a tough few weeks for equity investors with stock prices pushing lower across the board. The large-cap equity indexes such as the S&P 500 have formally hit correction mode (loss greater than 10%) while more volatile indexes like emerging markets and small-caps are in bear territory (loss greater than 20%). While clearly painful for investors, this latest bout of selling isn’t unprecedented. As the table below illustrates, we have…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 7, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   In a way the market has no memory day to day or week to week. And maybe it shouldn’t. But it is a sign of the uncertainty out there that the Dow can swing more than 700 points in the space of just a few hours on Thursday. Or how the S&P can be up +4.8% last week but down -4.6% this week. Trying to read some deep meaning into the daily…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on November 30, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The equity markets bounced back this week after somewhat soothing comments from the Fed chairman and hopes that this weekend’s meeting between the U.S. and China might start a thaw in trade tensions.  For the week the S&P advanced +4.8% while small-cap stocks gained +3.0%.  It was the best week for the S&P in eight years.  The international markets were similarly positive with the developed EAFE up +1.6% and emerging +3.3%.  Bond…
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  • Powell’s Comments Suggest Dovish Turn

    Posted on November 29, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionChairman Jerome Powell spoke today at the Economic Club of New York and his comments generally surprised markets in that they seemed to suggest current interest rates may be close to neutral. This is a stark contrast from Powell’s October 3rd statement where he said “…we may go past neutral. But we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.” At the time, this was interpreted to mean that markets should expect a…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on November 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It was a volatile week for stocks, bonds, and commodities. Oil prices in particular managed to lose over 8% at one point on Tuesday.  In general stocks were lower while bonds gained ground. Emerging equities stood out with a gain for the week.   Softening Global Growth…   The startling volatility in oil prices reflects at least three things. First, the supply outlook took a bearish turn a few weeks ago. Secondly,…
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  • Quick Market Recap & Oil’s Fall From Grace

    Posted on November 10, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Markets in general had a decent week. Yes, there was volatility but as of Friday’s close, the S&P ended the week up +2.2%. Despite growth stocks getting clobbered on Friday (the NASDAQ was down -1.7%), their return for the week was +1.3%. The only two major asset classes to suffer meaningful weekly losses were emerging market stocks and commodities (more below), down -2.5% and -1.2% respectively.   Oil’s Fall From Grace  …
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