• Asset Flows – How Money is Moving

    Posted on May 9, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionDuring periods of historic volatility, you often see significant changes in fund flows between asset classes. The past few months have been no different. Given this dynamic, we thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at what asset classes are taking in money and where that money is coming from.   March Saw Historic Outflows     During the initial phase of the downturn, investors fled nearly every asset class and…
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  • Charts That Caught Our Attention

    Posted on May 1, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionFor this week’s post, we thought it would be worthwhile to go through a few charts and statistics that caught our attention over the past couple weeks. In an effort to keep it different, we’ll try to stick to main street trends as opposed to security specific data (“try” being the operative word here).   Airports Are Ghost Towns     I created the above chart from data provided by the Transportation Safety Administration….
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 24, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Weekly Recap   At least on the economic front not much has changed and the contrast between the economic data and the markets just gets starker, with the former basically confirming what we already know, while the latter seems oblivious.   Weekly jobless claims came in at roughly 4.2 million this week, bringing total claims since the crisis began to roughly 26 million.     Such a quick spike in unemployment is…
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  • Volatility Through A Different Lens

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version“Every time I get accustomed to low volatility, like we were towards the end of the Greenspan era, and we think we have all the levers under the control… something erupts to remind us that the idea that anybody is in control of everything is hubris.”   -Lloyd Blankfein, ex-CEO Goldman Sachs   The point Blankfein is making here is that there are black swan type of events that are impossible to plan for…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 17, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Weekly Recap   A solid week in the markets again despite some miserable economic data. About the only major standout to the downside was oil. Crude oil prices briefly sank below $18 a barrel on Friday, the lowest level since 2002, as energy markets struggled to absorb a record glut created by the coronavirus pandemic.     Prices dropped this week despite a landmark US-backed deal by the OPEC+ group of producers…
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  • Energy’s Disappearing Act

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionIn coming up with a topic to write about, I did what I usually do – read research reports, white papers, news reports, investor letters etc. Everything, and I mean everything, is somehow or another related to this virus. While that is completely understandable, I thought it would be nice to talk about something unrelated to COVID-19.   Yesterday I was talking to our Chief Investment Officer Charles Blankley and he brought up a…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 10, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Weekly Recap   Another week marked by large moves seems almost normal now. Almost. This week the moves were generally up, and as it turned out, it was the best weekly gain for the S&P 500 since October 1974.   And because the market is a fickle beast, the rally unfolded against a backdrop of more lousy economic news. The main report was Thursday’s initial jobless claims number. Another 6.6 million applied…
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  • Looking Through The Smoke

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionThere have been 10 bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1950 (defined here as a -20% drawdown in the index price from a market high). The below chart shows the historical drawdowns in the index:     Pretty scary huh? Let’s add to the chart and show the subsequent bull markets:     Really puts those drawdowns in perspective doesn’t it? If you include dividends in the December 1987-March 2000 period, the gain…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 3, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Flying Blind   The fact that the economic data is starting to turn down surprises no one. As Bank Credit Analyst notes:   “One thing is certain. Economic activity around the world faces its biggest contraction in modern times. Declines in second quarter GDP will be mind-numbingly bad in a wide range of countries, especially those that have instituted lockdowns and the closure of non-essential businesses. According to the OECD, the median…
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  • Through the Looking Glass

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionOver the past week, my five-year-old daughter and I have been reading through Lewis Carol’s “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland.” We just started chapter five – where Alice stumbles upon the caterpillar who asks “Who are you?.” Alice replies:   “ I–I hardly know, sir, just at present– at least I know who I was when I got up this morning, but I think I must have been changed several times since then.”   This…
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