• Market Recap

    Posted on April 17, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Weekly Recap   A solid week in the markets again despite some miserable economic data. About the only major standout to the downside was oil. Crude oil prices briefly sank below $18 a barrel on Friday, the lowest level since 2002, as energy markets struggled to absorb a record glut created by the coronavirus pandemic.     Prices dropped this week despite a landmark US-backed deal by the OPEC+ group of producers…
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  • Energy’s Disappearing Act

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionIn coming up with a topic to write about, I did what I usually do – read research reports, white papers, news reports, investor letters etc. Everything, and I mean everything, is somehow or another related to this virus. While that is completely understandable, I thought it would be nice to talk about something unrelated to COVID-19.   Yesterday I was talking to our Chief Investment Officer Charles Blankley and he brought up a…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 10, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Weekly Recap   Another week marked by large moves seems almost normal now. Almost. This week the moves were generally up, and as it turned out, it was the best weekly gain for the S&P 500 since October 1974.   And because the market is a fickle beast, the rally unfolded against a backdrop of more lousy economic news. The main report was Thursday’s initial jobless claims number. Another 6.6 million applied…
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  • Looking Through The Smoke

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionThere have been 10 bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1950 (defined here as a -20% drawdown in the index price from a market high). The below chart shows the historical drawdowns in the index:     Pretty scary huh? Let’s add to the chart and show the subsequent bull markets:     Really puts those drawdowns in perspective doesn’t it? If you include dividends in the December 1987-March 2000 period, the gain…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 3, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Flying Blind   The fact that the economic data is starting to turn down surprises no one. As Bank Credit Analyst notes:   “One thing is certain. Economic activity around the world faces its biggest contraction in modern times. Declines in second quarter GDP will be mind-numbingly bad in a wide range of countries, especially those that have instituted lockdowns and the closure of non-essential businesses. According to the OECD, the median…
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  • Through the Looking Glass

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionOver the past week, my five-year-old daughter and I have been reading through Lewis Carol’s “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland.” We just started chapter five – where Alice stumbles upon the caterpillar who asks “Who are you?.” Alice replies:   “ I–I hardly know, sir, just at present– at least I know who I was when I got up this morning, but I think I must have been changed several times since then.”   This…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 27, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   From Bear to Bull in a Week   Another wild week. The sharpest, fastest bear market in history – the S&P 500 was down -35.2% from its closing high on February 19 to the intraday low on Monday – was followed by the sharpest, fastest move back into bull market territory in history, as the index rallied +20% from that point through yesterday’s close. Both Tuesday and the past three days were…
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  • Good Time To Revisit How an ETF Works

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionBull and bear markets are funny things. When the markets are soaring, no one seems to ask many questions and if they do, they don’t dig too deep. During big downturns, everyone is asking questions and trying to figure out how various financial instruments actually work. Given all the chaos recently, we thought it would be a good time to revisit how ETFs work and discuss how volatility exposes some unique characteristics of this…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 20, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Where to Begin?   Most importantly, all of us at Gemmer hope you and your family are healthy and doing as well as can be expected. Everyone here is working hard during this ‘shelter in place’ period and our backup plan to work remotely is functioning better than we could have expected. We were fully operational day 1!   Secondly, you may see trade confirms coming through in the coming days. We…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 6, 2020 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   V, U, or L scenario?   What a crazy week. What can you say about a week that saw the following daily S&P 500 returns: Monday +4.6%, Tuesday -2.8%, Wednesday +4.2%, Thursday -3.4%, and Friday -1.7%? And after all this the S&P finished up +0.6% for the week. Who’d of thought?   Normally we’d get into today’s strong payrolls report and how the economy had built up a decent head of steam…
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