• Market Recap

    Posted on March 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version It was an eventful week for the markets given the Fed announcement on Wednesday and then a key move in interest rates Friday. The Fed really didn’t surprise. As expected they kept rates stable and signaled they probably won’t do much all of this year (more below). Probably more eventful was the push lower in longer-term interest rates around the world. Equities around the world were weaker with the S&P losing -0.8% over…
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  • A Better Investment Experience (Part 1)

    Posted on March 8, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionIn this business we’re constantly telling clients to focus on the long-term.  We say things like:   “Don’t pay attention to the day-to-day volatility.”   “Focus on whether or not your investment plan meets your specific goals.”   “Invest energy into the things you can actually control.”   These are all good pieces of advice but sometimes we need a bit more substance to help us keep the faith.  In other words, what specific…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 1, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   2018 Closes on a Strong Note…   Last week we laid out all the signs of slower growth in the United States, but we made the point that despite this the odds of recession were still relatively low. Along the same lines, this week we found out that economic growth in the fourth quarter was actually pretty robust.   Real GDP rose by +2.6% in the fourth quarter, well above expectations of…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on February 22, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Another decent week for the global equity markets with gains across the board. The S&P 500 picked up +0.6% while small-caps added +1.1%. EM was strong with a +2.3% gain. Equities have rallied despite slowing global growth, in part due to a more dovish central bank backdrop, and in part due to hopes about a trade deal. Certainly, the change in central bank attitudes has helped push bond yields lower. The yield…
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  • Lessons From A Bond King’s Fall From Grace

    Posted on by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionThis isn’t so much beating a guy while he is down, but more a cautionary tale for us all. There but for the grace type of thing.   Bill Gross was close to a god in this business for decades. He helped co-found PIMCO over 40 years ago and built it into a $2 trillion firm at the peak. He was the first Bond King. There was even a book about him when he…
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  • Waiting Out The Weather

    Posted on February 15, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version“In many ways, the stock market is like the weather in that if you don’t like the current conditions all you have to do is wait awhile.” -Lou Simpson   Lou Simpson is the former CEO of GEICO’s capital operations and at one point was thought to be the successor to Warren Buffett’s perch atop Berkshire Hathaway (they ultimately didn’t choose him because he was only six years Warren’s junior). In any event, Lou’s…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on January 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Equities had another solid week with the S&P picking up +2.9% while the NASDAQ added +2.7%. All the global indexes are in the black for the year after the drubbing they took in December. Bond yields have drifted modestly higher, but the moves have been relatively small. Credit has bounced back with the equity market – high-yield is up +4.2% so far this year. Crude oil has rebounded while gold prices have…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 28, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   What a crazy week. Sometimes these letters are pretty straightforward. The market did X because Y happened. Other times you are forced to admit you have no clue. This is one of those weeks.   Trading on Christmas eve was brutal. The worst Christmas eve in the Dow’s 122-year history as a matter of fact. Well that’s nice. Certainly, losses on Monday were exacerbated by the ham-handed effort on the part of…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on December 20, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It has been a tough few weeks for equity investors with stock prices pushing lower across the board. The large-cap equity indexes such as the S&P 500 have formally hit correction mode (loss greater than 10%) while more volatile indexes like emerging markets and small-caps are in bear territory (loss greater than 20%). While clearly painful for investors, this latest bout of selling isn’t unprecedented. As the table below illustrates, we have…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 7, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   In a way the market has no memory day to day or week to week. And maybe it shouldn’t. But it is a sign of the uncertainty out there that the Dow can swing more than 700 points in the space of just a few hours on Thursday. Or how the S&P can be up +4.8% last week but down -4.6% this week. Trying to read some deep meaning into the daily…
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