• Emerging Markets – An Alternative View

    Posted on June 28, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionOver two centuries ago, famed British banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild coined the trading phrase, “buy on the sound of cannons; sell on the sound of trumpets.” He was insinuating that markets tend to panic at the outbreak of wars (“the sound of cannons”), presenting good long-term values. On the other hand, markets typically become sanguine once a conflict comes to an end (“the sound of trumpets”), driving them to elevated levels where traders may…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Valuations Are High – So What?

    Posted on June 26, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionFor years market prognosticators have been saying that valuations are high.  And if you look at the data, it’s true.  The Cyclically Adjusted PE or CAPE Ratio (see definition here), a measure of valuation that is generally thought to be more stable than other relative valuation measures, has been above its historical average since August of 2009 (S&P 500).     Here is the same chart with two additional horizontal lines showing +/- two standard deviation…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Market Recap

    Posted on June 22, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   A New Recession Call   With President Trump’s new trade agenda and fears about Fed policy inverting the yield curve, the drumbeat of recession calls is picking up.   This week David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates garnered a lot of attention by calling for a recession in 12 months (read more here).   Rosenberg has been unfairly tarred as a perma-bear over the years. He was certainly bearish in the…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Corporate Earnings – The Future Looks Good

    Posted on June 21, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics   I don’t think Bohr was referencing corporate earnings estimates when he made the above quip, but his words do make a point about predicting the future…   When discussing the state of the U.S. economy, one of the things analysts often point to is the health of corporate earnings – not just reported earnings, but future…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • End of an Era

    Posted on June 20, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionNothing lasts forever.  Tuesday afternoon we learned that General Electric, an original member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, will be kicked out effective June 26th.   It will be replaced by Walgreens Boots Alliance.   Wow!!   GE was an original member of the Dow in 1896 and has been in it continuously since 1907.  The company has been struggling the last few years, it replaced its CEO recently, and slashed thousands of jobs while cutting…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Market Update

    Posted on June 15, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It was obviously a busy news week.  The Trump/Kim meeting garnered a lot of attention early on, and then of course there is the World Cup.  But market wise, there were four key items:   Inflation report   The Fed meeting   European Central Bank (ECB) meeting   Trade Policy   Inflation – Drifting Higher   There was another sign that inflation is percolating this week.  The CPI report for May showed…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Trade with Canada – Surplus or Deficit?

    Posted on June 14, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionCanada has been in the press a lot recently.  The reason for all the attention is the country’s trading relationship with the United States.  In a recent tweet, the President claimed: “…they (Canada) make almost 100 Billion Dollars in Trade with U.S. (guess they were bragging and got caught!). Minimum is 17B.” If you listen to other economists, the U.S. runs a trade surplus, not a deficit with Canada (meaning Canada imports more goods…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • A Hawkish Hike

    Posted on June 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionIt’s not exactly a shocker the Fed hiked interest rates by another 25bps today. But going into to today’s meeting the market had started to think the Fed might ease up on future rate hikes. After all:   1) Emerging markets were starting to show some stress.   a.  Take Brazil   b.  Or Argentina   c.  Both the Indian and Indonesian’s central bank heads took the Fed to task about tightening.   2) Recent…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us?

    Posted on June 7, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionWhat Does the Yield Curve Tell Us?   If you have had the unfortunate pleasure of reading the financial press over the last few months you have invariably run into articles talking about the shape of the yield curve and the bad things it portends.  A ten second internet search gives the following headline from the Wall Street Journal (see box to the right).  If you peruse the darker underbelly of online financial news…
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • Labor Market: Haven’t Seen This Before

    Posted on June 6, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable VersionThe labor market set something of a record this week. For the first time since records have been kept (OK, the data only goes back to 2000, but cut us some slack here!), job openings in the U.S. exceed the number of unemployed workers. Bloomberg has a quick summary here.     This report coming on the heels of last Friday’s payrolls reports basically guarantees the Fed hikes next Wednesday by another quarter point….
    Continue reading >>

    Categories:

    Bookmark and Share
  • « First ‹ Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next › Last »