• Market Update

    Posted on April 27, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   A lot of back and forth this week but stocks really didn’t go anywhere. The S&P 500 and EAFE were basically unchanged and small-cap U.S. stocks lagged modestly. Jitters about rising interest rates were largely offset by decent earnings reports (more below) and a lessening of tensions on the Korean Peninsula (who would have thought?).   10-year Treasury bond yields briefly surmounted the 3% threshold for the first time since 2014, as…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on April 13, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It was a decent week for the global equity markets with broad based gains. The S&P and developed EAFE index both advanced +2.0% while small-cap U.S. equities modestly outperformed. Commodities performed well given the over +10% rally in crude oil. Interest rates ticked higher and intermediate-term government bonds lost -0.3%. Low quality high-yield bonds performed strongly, though, with a +1.2% gain for the week.   Conflicting Themes   In our latest quarterly…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 23, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap Tough week for the equity markets. For the week the S&P lost -6.0% while small-caps were hit for -4.8%. The international markets were down between -3.6% and -4.7%, less than U.S. large-caps due in part to a weak dollar. Worries about trade wars and the Fed conspired to drive prices lower, and significant cracks in certain social media stocks didn’t help confidence (Facebook lost -13.9% this week). But despite the roughly…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The Inflation Trade Takes a Pause   One of the big market stories this year has been the rise in bond yields. This has led to modest losses for government bonds and is one of the reasons the equity market corrected in February. The bond narrative has gone something like this:   – Growth is going to boom because of the tax cuts…   – …which means faster inflation given that unemployment…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on March 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Well, the streak had to come to an end. The market decline in February ended the longest run of positive months on record. It was nice while it lasted!     The reasons are well known. Bubbling fears about inflation pushed bond yields up. Expectations for Fed policy were ratcheted up a notch as a result, especially after the massive budget deal a couple weeks ago. And just to keep things interesting,…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version The equity markets bounced back handsomely this week. The S&P rallied +4.3% over the last five days while small-caps bounced +4.2%. EM was a standout with a +6.7% weekly gain. Interestingly, stocks were able to rally despite rising yields. The correction a week ago was blamed to some extent on rising yields. But that didn’t matter this week. Hotter than expected inflation numbers pushed the yield on the 10-year to 2.88%, up +5bps…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 9, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Now that was a wild week. Coming into Friday the S&P 500 had closed down seven of the previous nine trading sessions, including drops of 1.1%, 2.1%, 3.8%, and 4.1%. This last selloff was the biggest one-day decline since 2011. We are now officially in ‘correction’ territory for the first time in two years. From the high the S&P was down -11.8% at Friday’s low before the markets bounced, while the EAFE…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on February 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   After a torrid start to the year, global stock markets corrected this week. The immediate catalyst was rising bond yields around the world. For the week the S&P 500 dipped -3.9% while small-cap stocks were hit for -3.8%. The developed EAFE declined in line with the U.S. indexes while emerging equities fell -5.8%.   The Fed met this week and left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, this didn’t prevent longer-term bond…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on January 19, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Equity markets continued their winning ways this week with the S&P gaining +0.9% while small-cap equities advanced +0.3%. The international markets were also solid – the EAFE was up +0.8% and the EM index +1.9%. We are early in the early inning of fourth quarter earnings reports, but the most interesting aspect will be what companies do with the tax cut proceeds. There are two broad themes coming to light:   1) We…
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  • Market Update

    Posted on January 12, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The equity markets have started off 2018 on the front foot. Gains have been broad based with all the major asset classes advancing. Only government bonds have struggled to gain traction. So far in 2018 the S&P is up +4.2% while small-cap equities are up +3.6%. International equities are doing well with the developed EAFE up +4.5% and emerging equities up +5.1%. As we talk about in our quarterly letter that will…
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