Market Recap   The equity markets were generally robust this week despite building worries about supply chains, energy shortages, and inflation. But for all the talk, long-term bond yields are still below the highs seen back in March (2-year yields have moved more). Granted, this week’s push higher could be the start of a run back towards 1.8%, but we shall see.   One area that did set a post-COIVD record were unemployment claims….
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  Market Recap   Somewhat of a listless week for the markets with no clear theme other than a general fascination with what is happening with energy prices around the world.  The main economic report in the U.S. was Friday’s employment report, and it was basically a dud.  The economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, far below the 500,000 expected by economists.  As it turned out, only 2 out of 71 economists polled predicted…
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Market Recap   The third quarter closed on a down note with broad losses in both stocks and bonds in September. Nothing very dramatic, but notable nonetheless that both main asset classes were down in the same month. In general, only Japanese stocks and commodities were in the black during September.   There were a couple interesting economic reports in the last week. The inflation data came in hot again. Friday’s Core PCE report showed…
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  Market Recap   Market’s swooned earlier in the week on the Evergrande story, but didn’t stay down long. The prospect of a large company with a huge amount of debt possibly defaulting had echoes of Lehman all over it. But is that actually the case? More below.   But one thing was sure, it didn’t take much for investors to show signs of panic. For example, the number of put options bought on Monday…
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  Market Recap   Most equity markets finished lower on the week, although commodity prices were generally higher. Gold and silver struggled with the stronger dollar.   There were two big macro reports. The first concerned inflation. The Consumer Price Index for August was up +5.25% year-over-year, down from +5.37% the previous month. Core was up +4.00%, as you can see below.     While you can’t tell from the chart above, this report was…
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Market Recap   It’s September already? Really? Well, August closed on a positive note and the S&P has now been in the black for seven months in a row. Not quite rarified air, but it’s getting there, as you can see below.       So naturally we must be due for a correction? Maybe. Septembers tend to trade on the soft side, but the historical performance after seven month win streaks for the S&P…
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  Market Recap   Equity markets rallied this week on a couple things. First, Fed Chairman Powell basically said nothing to upset the applecart at the annual Jackson Hole meeting (more below). And some optimists started making the case that the spread of the delta variant was peaking. Looking at the charts below you have to squint pretty hard to see that…     …but maybe the dip in the pace of hospital admissions in…
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  Market Recap   Something of a bumpy week with a number of crosscurrents. A Fed meeting, corporate earnings reports, and another clamp down by the Chinese authorities on some private firms all grabbed investor’s attention. Some of the highlights:   Growth Moderates – Supply Concerns Weigh   The first estimate for second quarter GDP growth was released this week. This initial number came in at +6.5%, 1.9% below estimates (chart below).     The…
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