Market Recap   A good week for most equity markets with the exception of some emerging countries, particularly China. There is definitely a summer lull type of feeling to the last few weeks, but earnings results are trickling out and the numbers are coming in solid. Through Thursday roughly 18% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings. As you can see below, 86% beat earnings estimates and earnings are up +99% y/y, helped…
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  Market Recap   There were a couple main economic reports for the week.   Consumers still have cash and are willing to spend it. Retail sales came in at + 0.6% month-over-month in June versus expectations for a fall of -0.4%. Year-over-year growth is running at over +15%, as you can see below.     The other biggie was the consumer price inflation (CPI) number for June. It was up +5.4% year-over-year, above expectations…
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  Market Recap   Last week the reflation trade was a bust after the Fed hinted they might hike interest rates many moons from now. This week those same trades (value stocks, commodities, natural resource stocks, etc.) popped higher on the same idea, namely than any rate hike is many moons from now. Don’t you love it?!   On the inflation front, the latest personal consumption expenditure index came in at +0.5% month-over-month in May…
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  Market Recap   It was all about the Federal Reserve this week and what they might do with policy in the months to come. Of course, they don’t know what they are going to do anymore than the rest of us, but they are compelled to make forecasts given the business they are in, and the markets respond accordingly.   The main takeaway from Wednesday’s announcement was that the Fed thinks it may raise…
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  Market Recap   The relentless bid under the market persisted this week with stocks and bonds advancing. The rally in equities isn’t exactly shocking given underlying growth dynamics (both economic and earnings growth). But the rally in bond prices has taken a lot of people by surprise.   There was a good amount of trepidation among bond investors going into this week due to the scheduled release of the consumer price index (CPI) for…
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  Market Recap   The start of June got off to a pretty favorable start for investors, with both stocks and bonds advancing modestly. Generally, about now the summer lull kicks in. People’s minds turn towards vacations and away from the markets. And who can blame them. But the world is different, and apparently the prospect of free popcorn is enough to stir people’s speculative appetites. AMC managed a monster rally this week as people…
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  Market Recap   It was a volatile week for all asset classes as investors tried to digest the latest inflation data. Was the spike higher a temporary blip, a sign of things to come, or something in-between? There are no clear answers yet, but it is evident from this week’s gyrations that assets aren’t priced for a durable return of inflation.   What set the cat among the pigeons was the Consumer Price Index…
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  Weekly Recap   Not a bad week across the board with both equities and bonds gaining some ground. Under the surface there were pockets of weakness, though. Small-caps were down fractionally and some of the highflying growth/work from home plays were hit hard. The main economic news of the week was related to jobs.   Weekly Jobless Claims   First the good news. Weekly jobless claims pushed to a new low for the week…
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  Weekly Recap   Flat week for the equity markets and bond yields continued their push lower, although the move seems to be running out of steam. It is somewhat notable that at one of the many bond auctions the government was able to sell 5-year TIPS with a real yield of -1.631%. This marks the lowest yield at issue in the entire history of the TIPS market at any maturity.     There was…
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