Category Archives: Uncategorized

Market Recap

Posted on March 12, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Weekly Recap   Solid week for the equity markets as investors generally looked past rising yields, at least for now. Most indexes pushed higher with the exception of China and some other emerging market indexes. The Chinese government was actually reported to be a heavy buyer of stocks this week to try and prop things up.   As for rates, they have basically done a full round-trip, as you can see below. The 10-year…
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Market Recap

Posted on October 25, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Faint Positive Hints in the Manufacturing Sector…   There wasn’t a lot of new economic data this week, but what there was hinted at stabilization, not deterioration. The Richmond manufacturing index hooked higher, as you can see below.     While this is a narrow regional number, it gets a lot of attention because it is tightly correlated with the national ISM manufacturing number (chart below).     It raises the possibility that manufacturing…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 18, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  Tariffs, Trade, and Argentinian Turmoil   It has been a wild couple weeks in the markets as investors have been caught in the crossfire of slowing global growth, flattening yield curves, and trade war uncertainty. The latest bout of volatility was set off when the Trump Administration announced they would slap tariffs on all of China’s exports. There was a brief respite then Trump decided to delay the hike on many consumer goods until…
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Market Recap

Posted on May 31, 2019 by Gemmer Asset

  More Trade Turbulence   All that mattered for the markets and investors this week was the direction of trade policy. Up until Thursday night it was trade with China and the falling odds of a ‘deal’ anytime soon that captured headlines. However, on Thursday seemingly out of left field Trump tweeted his plan to slap tariffs on Mexico.   This took almost everyone by surprise.   Up until now investors thought we had a…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 31, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  First Turkey, Now Argentina   The emerging markets (EM) haven’t been in the news for what, a couple weeks? Dire headlines about Turkey’s problems were all the rage for a while. This week the spotlight, or more accurately the bulls-eye, shifted to Argentina.   By way of background, Argentina has a colorful history when it comes to debt repayments. Specifically, they have a history of not paying. Since independence Argentina has managed to default…
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The Problem with Leveraged ETFs

Posted on August 30, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.”   -Warren Buffett   With the proliferation of ETFs over the past 20 years just about every asset class you can think of has at least a handful of ETFs to choose from. Because of this, providers have had to get creative in bringing “unique” products to market. Some of the more interesting (trying to be kind here) recent offerings have included (yes…
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Market Update

Posted on March 23, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

Market Recap Tough week for the equity markets. For the week the S&P lost -6.0% while small-caps were hit for -4.8%. The international markets were down between -3.6% and -4.7%, less than U.S. large-caps due in part to a weak dollar. Worries about trade wars and the Fed conspired to drive prices lower, and significant cracks in certain social media stocks didn’t help confidence (Facebook lost -13.9% this week). But despite the roughly 1,150 point…
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Market Update

Posted on March 16, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  The Inflation Trade Takes a Pause   One of the big market stories this year has been the rise in bond yields. This has led to modest losses for government bonds and is one of the reasons the equity market corrected in February. The bond narrative has gone something like this:   – Growth is going to boom because of the tax cuts…   – …which means faster inflation given that unemployment is down…
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Market Update

Posted on February 9, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  Now that was a wild week. Coming into Friday the S&P 500 had closed down seven of the previous nine trading sessions, including drops of 1.1%, 2.1%, 3.8%, and 4.1%. This last selloff was the biggest one-day decline since 2011. We are now officially in ‘correction’ territory for the first time in two years. From the high the S&P was down -11.8% at Friday’s low before the markets bounced, while the EAFE and emerging…
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Market Update

Posted on February 2, 2018 by Gemmer Asset

  After a torrid start to the year, global stock markets corrected this week. The immediate catalyst was rising bond yields around the world. For the week the S&P 500 dipped -3.9% while small-cap stocks were hit for -3.8%. The developed EAFE declined in line with the U.S. indexes while emerging equities fell -5.8%.   The Fed met this week and left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, this didn’t prevent longer-term bond yields from…
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