Category Archives: Investing
Market Recap
Weekly Recap A lot of crosscurrents in the markets as 2020 nears its end. We hit an unfortunate milestone yesterday with more than 3,000 deaths in the U.S. and over 100K hospitalized, as you can see below. And as we are all experiencing, we are seeing renewed lockdowns in many parts of the country. However, unlike earlier in the year the year, lockdowns are not being accompanied by fiscal support. As…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap Well there’s the path and the destination. Over the last couple weeks the destination has become a little clearer. Possibly three vaccines approved by year-end if we don’t count the Russian and Chinese versions. Distribution to high risk individuals/professions by the middle of 2021. Maybe widespread distribution by this time next year. Of course, there are a tremendous number of assumptions in this view, but it seems we are moving in…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap One of the crazier weeks in a long, long time, both from a political as well as a market perspective. Obviously, the political backdrop is…what’s the word???…fluid at the moment. But the betting markets at least are pointing to a 92% chance of a Biden win, as you can see below. The Senate is a closer run thing, but so far the same betting markets are giving the Republicans…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap It was a rough week all around and the markets reflected the uncertainty. Even bond yields ticked higher despite the drubbing in the equity markets. A renewed surge in COVID infections and uncertainty heading into next week’s election were obvious triggers for the correction. Interestingly, the earnings and economic reports were decent. But the markets are naturally forward looking, and the outlook is as murky as it has been in a…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap The equity markets were generally softer this week as COVID infections pushed higher and talks on another fiscal package stalled out. There wasn’t much on the economic news front, but two reports stand out. Retail Sales A solid report. Sales growth picked up again in September, increasing a stronger-than-expected 1.9%. As you can see below, retail sales have easily eclipsed the high set pre-COVID. Revisions to prior…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap What else does 2020 have up its sleeve? This week started with an ‘earthquake swarm’ in Southern CA and ended with the President and First Lady’s COVID diagnosis. What’s next?? The main economic news was Friday’s payrolls report. Nonfarm employment increased by 661,000 in September, about 200,000 shy of expectations. This disappointment was partly offset by an upward revision to July and August job growth of 145,000. Private employment expanded…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap The September correction rolls on, with most of the pain, at least so far, in the stretched momentum/growth type names. The Snowflake IPO this week was a hit (for the founders and employees, or if you could get it pre-market), but it also drew attention to the valuations in certain sectors. The major economic/market related news of the week was the Fed announcement on Wednesday. This meeting garnered a lot…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap The markets continued to correct this week, especially the frothy momentum names like Tesla and Apple. No real news triggered the latest correction – more of a case that sentiment had turned too bullish. Maybe there’s also a seasonality thing going on. As you can see below, Septembers have historically been lousy months. Oh, and there’s the uncertainty around the election of course. At least historically it’s not usual…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap Another solid week for the global equity markets, and the relentless push higher continues, especially for the tech/growth names. I still can’t get my head around the chart below – the market cap for Apple almost equals all 2000 companies in the small-cap index??!! In terms of economic statistics, the housing data was probably the most interesting. Oh, and the Fed officially moved the goal posts. Safe as…
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Market Recap
Weekly Recap A week of modest gains but the volatility certainly picked up in the hot sectors such as the FANGs and precious metals. And we finally saw interest rates tick higher as the Treasury market wrestled with a surge of new issuance. On the economic front, the data was generally decent. Weekly Unemployment Claims New applications for US unemployment benefits fell below 1m for the first time since mid-March….
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