• Market Recap

    Posted on July 15, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It’s all about inflation and earnings, earnings and inflation, oh, and what the Fed will do (or what can they do) about inflation. Markets sew saw on the latest data point or comment from a Fed talking head. Combine that with low liquidity over the summer months, and the stage is set for volatile back-and-forth trading.   The main event this week was obviously the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report. It was…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on June 24, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   How quickly the narrative changes when it comes to the markets. A week ago, inflation was skyrocketing, interest rates were soaring, and the mood was gloomy regarding risk assets. This week it’s as if things flipped 180 degrees. Rising recession risks combined with lower commodity prices is feeding the growing belief that inflation has peaked. This is leading to the idea of the so called ‘Fed pivot’ by year-end. This is just…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on June 17, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The standard definition of a bear market is clearly ‘arbitrary and capricious.’ There’s nothing magical about a decline of 20% that all of a sudden morphs a correction into a bear market, but we hit just such a threshold this week for the S&P 500. This process has been going on all year. First non-profitable tech/growth companies were taken out back and shot late last year. Then crypto was annihilated. Next the…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on June 10, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The markets have turned treacherous again after a brief bounce the last couple weeks. As we have noted over the years, there are times the markets become like a toddler – they can focus on only one thing at a time. Now it’s all about inflation. How high is it going? For how long? And what will the authorities do to fight it (if anything)?   On Friday we got another hot…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on May 6, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   You’d think this was a boring week if you looked at just the S&P 500 return and didn’t watch trading during the day (which no one should – it will drive you nuts!!). But it was actually one of the most volatile weeks since the COVID crisis.   There was a lot of nervousness coming into this week due to the Fed meeting. While stocks dipped slightly after the…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 29, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   We are all probably glad to close the book on April, at least from a market perspective. Almost all asset classes lost ground during the month, but some of the heaviest selling was in leaders of the last few years. The so-called FANG group of Facebook (now Meta), Amazon, Netflix, and Google were all sharply lower in April. Facebook lost -7%, Amazon roughly -25%, Netflix -47%, and Google -16%. Apple and NVDIA…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 22, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   It was a rough week for everyone. Bonds, stocks, commodities – basically everything was down. There wasn’t a ton of economic news to drive the selling. The main report was existing home sales which was a touch soft, but not dramatically so (down -2.7% in March versus February).     Inventories remain exceptionally tight, with the months supply ticking up to just over 2 (red line below).     But of course,…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on April 1, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   The quarter ended on a downer on Thursday, but stocks were broadly higher in March after losing ground in January and February. Bonds struggled all quarter, and year-to-date loses for the fixed income indexes matched or exceeded those for most equity indexes – an unusual occurrence.   The week was filled with economic news. Some of the highlights:   Labor Market Remains Strong   Another solid report with 431,000 jobs added last…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 25, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Large-cap U.S. stocks pushed higher this week and bond yields jumped. Most equity sectors performed reasonably well, with energy leading the way. Healthcare was the only sector in the red. Over the last month every sector is in the green, with gains ranging from +2.4% (consumer defensive) to +14.1% (energy) . Why the rally? Of course, there are no end of pet theories floating around, but in our mind it boils down…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on March 4, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   I’m not sure where you start with a weekly letter like this. The news out of Ukraine is heartbreaking and becomes more so as each day passes. The twists and turns in the financial markets pale in importance to the humanitarian crisis underway. If financial matters are the furthest thing from your mind this week, then this letter is worth skipping. End the week with the following thought – when you see…
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