• Market Recap

    Posted on October 8, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Somewhat of a listless week for the markets with no clear theme other than a general fascination with what is happening with energy prices around the world.  The main economic report in the U.S. was Friday’s employment report, and it was basically a dud.  The economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, far below the 500,000 expected by economists.  As it turned out, only 2 out of 71 economists…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 1, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap   The third quarter closed on a down note with broad losses in both stocks and bonds in September. Nothing very dramatic, but notable nonetheless that both main asset classes were down in the same month. In general, only Japanese stocks and commodities were in the black during September.   There were a couple interesting economic reports in the last week. The inflation data came in hot again. Friday’s Core PCE…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 24, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Market’s swooned earlier in the week on the Evergrande story, but didn’t stay down long. The prospect of a large company with a huge amount of debt possibly defaulting had echoes of Lehman all over it. But is that actually the case? More below.   But one thing was sure, it didn’t take much for investors to show signs of panic. For example, the number of put options bought…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 17, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Most equity markets finished lower on the week, although commodity prices were generally higher. Gold and silver struggled with the stronger dollar.   There were two big macro reports. The first concerned inflation. The Consumer Price Index for August was up +5.25% year-over-year, down from +5.37% the previous month. Core was up +4.00%, as you can see below.     While you can’t tell from the chart above, this…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 3, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap   It’s September already? Really? Well, August closed on a positive note and the S&P has now been in the black for seven months in a row. Not quite rarified air, but it’s getting there, as you can see below.       So naturally we must be due for a correction? Maybe. Septembers tend to trade on the soft side, but the historical performance after seven month win streaks for…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on August 27, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Equity markets rallied this week on a couple things. First, Fed Chairman Powell basically said nothing to upset the applecart at the annual Jackson Hole meeting (more below). And some optimists started making the case that the spread of the delta variant was peaking. Looking at the charts below you have to squint pretty hard to see that…     …but maybe the dip in the pace of hospital…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on August 20, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   You probably can’t pin this week’s losses in the stock market to any one particular thing. Soft retail sales, signs the Fed wants to make policy a little less generous, bear market in Hong Kong, COVID, Afghanistan, low volume summer trading? Take your pick. All probably conspired to some degree to weigh on sentiment if nothing else.   From an economic perspective, the highlight (or lowlight, depending on your…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on August 13, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   A generally decent week for the equity markets as the earnings data came in strong and most economic reports were solid. The market hasn’t focused on the deteriorating COVID news for some time now. The U.K. is viewed as something of a bellwether, and even there case counts have ticked higher again. So far the key has been that mortality rates haven’t moved significantly higher, raising the hope that…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on August 6, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   More summer lull activity this week, but Friday’s jobs report likely sets up one of the main themes for this fall – when will the Fed start to slow their asset purchases?   Over the last few months there has been a lot of debate about how strong the economy will need to be to start the Fed on the path towards pulling back some of the COVID crisis…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on July 30, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Something of a bumpy week with a number of crosscurrents. A Fed meeting, corporate earnings reports, and another clamp down by the Chinese authorities on some private firms all grabbed investor’s attention. Some of the highlights:   Growth Moderates – Supply Concerns Weigh   The first estimate for second quarter GDP growth was released this week. This initial number came in at +6.5%, 1.9% below estimates (chart below).  …
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