• Market Recap

    Posted on January 14, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   January continues to be soft with losses across most equity and fixed income asset classes. But for the first time in a while international stocks are outpacing domestic equities, and value continues to beat growth by a decent margin.   A few economic reports of note. Retail sales came in soft – down -1.9% in December month-over-month. This was much weaker than expected, but sales are up +16.9% year-over-year,…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on January 7, 2022 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   The first trading week of the year got off to a rough start. For once COVID worries seemed to moderate somewhat and concerns about inflation and what it might mean for Fed policy moved front and center. The headline numbers for the equity indexes mask some real pain under the surface. For example, cloud computing stocks were hit with a -10.8% loss and Cathy Woods’ ARKK fund was down…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 17, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Broad losses for the global equity markets while bonds rallied. The rally in bond prices/fall in yields played out despite a rate hike in the U.K. and a relatively hawkish Fed meeting. Over the last few months falling yields have been positive for growth stocks, but this week we saw some significant selling in the high valuation names. Broader still. the big indexes like the Dow and S&P 500…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on December 10, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   As the year winds down the markets are fixating on three things – what happens with the Omicron variant, where inflation is headed, and how aggressive will the Fed be in battling the perceived inflation risks? On the first question opinions differ widely. There’s a chart at the end of this report that shows South Africa’s experience with Omicron to date. More infections but less severe seems to be…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on November 19, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   A pretty volatile week for equities but little fundamental news to drive the action. The debate about inflation rages on and the political uncertainty about both the Build Back Better plan and the next Fed chair persist. Rumors are we will hear about the Fed choice next week. For what it’s worth, the betting markets are in Powell’s favor, but not by much.     The only major economic…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on November 5, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version    Market Recap   All the main U.S. indexes broke to new highs this week, but the rally in the Russell 2000 was particularly impressive. Conversely, the performance of emerging equities continues to underwhelm. And despite a strong jobs report and confirmation that the Fed will start tapering their bond purchases this month, longer-term bond yields declined noticeably.   There were a couple important economic reports. The first was the monthly read on…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 29, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   For all the talk about inflation, stocks generally had a decent week and bonds gained/yields declined. While the bond market might be signaling a possible Fed misstep next year, stocks keyed off the third quarter earnings reports that came out this week. So far this earnings cycle, 82% of S&P 500 companies have beat estimates, a historically high number, as you can see below.     Earning growth is…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 22, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   The equity markets were generally robust this week despite building worries about supply chains, energy shortages, and inflation. But for all the talk, long-term bond yields are still below the highs seen back in March (2-year yields have moved more). Granted, this week’s push higher could be the start of a run back towards 1.8%, but we shall see.   One area that did set a post-COIVD record were…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 8, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Somewhat of a listless week for the markets with no clear theme other than a general fascination with what is happening with energy prices around the world.  The main economic report in the U.S. was Friday’s employment report, and it was basically a dud.  The economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, far below the 500,000 expected by economists.  As it turned out, only 2 out of 71 economists…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 1, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap   The third quarter closed on a down note with broad losses in both stocks and bonds in September. Nothing very dramatic, but notable nonetheless that both main asset classes were down in the same month. In general, only Japanese stocks and commodities were in the black during September.   There were a couple interesting economic reports in the last week. The inflation data came in hot again. Friday’s Core PCE…
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