• Market Recap

    Posted on November 19, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   A pretty volatile week for equities but little fundamental news to drive the action. The debate about inflation rages on and the political uncertainty about both the Build Back Better plan and the next Fed chair persist. Rumors are we will hear about the Fed choice next week. For what it’s worth, the betting markets are in Powell’s favor, but not by much.     The only major economic…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on November 5, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version    Market Recap   All the main U.S. indexes broke to new highs this week, but the rally in the Russell 2000 was particularly impressive. Conversely, the performance of emerging equities continues to underwhelm. And despite a strong jobs report and confirmation that the Fed will start tapering their bond purchases this month, longer-term bond yields declined noticeably.   There were a couple important economic reports. The first was the monthly read on…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 29, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   For all the talk about inflation, stocks generally had a decent week and bonds gained/yields declined. While the bond market might be signaling a possible Fed misstep next year, stocks keyed off the third quarter earnings reports that came out this week. So far this earnings cycle, 82% of S&P 500 companies have beat estimates, a historically high number, as you can see below.     Earning growth is…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 22, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   The equity markets were generally robust this week despite building worries about supply chains, energy shortages, and inflation. But for all the talk, long-term bond yields are still below the highs seen back in March (2-year yields have moved more). Granted, this week’s push higher could be the start of a run back towards 1.8%, but we shall see.   One area that did set a post-COIVD record were…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 8, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Somewhat of a listless week for the markets with no clear theme other than a general fascination with what is happening with energy prices around the world.  The main economic report in the U.S. was Friday’s employment report, and it was basically a dud.  The economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, far below the 500,000 expected by economists.  As it turned out, only 2 out of 71 economists…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on October 1, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap   The third quarter closed on a down note with broad losses in both stocks and bonds in September. Nothing very dramatic, but notable nonetheless that both main asset classes were down in the same month. In general, only Japanese stocks and commodities were in the black during September.   There were a couple interesting economic reports in the last week. The inflation data came in hot again. Friday’s Core PCE…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 24, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Market’s swooned earlier in the week on the Evergrande story, but didn’t stay down long. The prospect of a large company with a huge amount of debt possibly defaulting had echoes of Lehman all over it. But is that actually the case? More below.   But one thing was sure, it didn’t take much for investors to show signs of panic. For example, the number of put options bought…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 17, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Most equity markets finished lower on the week, although commodity prices were generally higher. Gold and silver struggled with the stronger dollar.   There were two big macro reports. The first concerned inflation. The Consumer Price Index for August was up +5.25% year-over-year, down from +5.37% the previous month. Core was up +4.00%, as you can see below.     While you can’t tell from the chart above, this…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on September 3, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version Market Recap   It’s September already? Really? Well, August closed on a positive note and the S&P has now been in the black for seven months in a row. Not quite rarified air, but it’s getting there, as you can see below.       So naturally we must be due for a correction? Maybe. Septembers tend to trade on the soft side, but the historical performance after seven month win streaks for…
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  • Market Recap

    Posted on August 27, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

    Printable Version   Market Recap   Equity markets rallied this week on a couple things. First, Fed Chairman Powell basically said nothing to upset the applecart at the annual Jackson Hole meeting (more below). And some optimists started making the case that the spread of the delta variant was peaking. Looking at the charts below you have to squint pretty hard to see that…     …but maybe the dip in the pace of hospital…
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