Market Recap   It was a volatile week for all asset classes as investors tried to digest the latest inflation data. Was the spike higher a temporary blip, a sign of things to come, or something in-between? There are no clear answers yet, but it is evident from this week’s gyrations that assets aren’t priced for a durable return of inflation.   What set the cat among the pigeons was the Consumer Price Index…
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  Weekly Recap   Not a bad week across the board with both equities and bonds gaining some ground. Under the surface there were pockets of weakness, though. Small-caps were down fractionally and some of the highflying growth/work from home plays were hit hard. The main economic news of the week was related to jobs.   Weekly Jobless Claims   First the good news. Weekly jobless claims pushed to a new low for the week…
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  Weekly Recap   Flat week for the equity markets and bond yields continued their push lower, although the move seems to be running out of steam. It is somewhat notable that at one of the many bond auctions the government was able to sell 5-year TIPS with a real yield of -1.631%. This marks the lowest yield at issue in the entire history of the TIPS market at any maturity.     There was…
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  Weekly Recap   Another solid week for the equity markets, and even the beleaguered bond market managed to rally. For now, stocks are shrugging off the rising COVID case count around the world…     …and choosing to focus instead on the unfolding economic growth cycle. For example, this week’s retail sales report was a blowout. Sales surged 9.8% in March, as you can see below.     …and choosing to focus instead on…
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  Weekly Recap   The story this week continued to be interest rates and the speculation about just how high they are going to go. The yield on the 10-year hit a high of 1.63% Friday before backing off. Over the years we’ve noted that the markets tend to fixate on a single issue at a time. Elections, pandemics, or banking problems can all capture the market’s attention at one point or another. But almost…
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  Weekly Recap   It was all about bond yields this week. A sell-off in U.S. government bonds ricocheted through the markets on Thursday, sending share prices lower. In the U.S. the yield on the 10-year briefly surpassed 1.6% on Thursday before closing the week out at 1.46%. The yield on the 5-year bond jumped an impressive 20bps.     Same story overseas. Australian bonds posted their worst month since 1994, with 10-year yields approaching…
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  Weekly Recap   Another month another stimulus plan. This is getting to become something of a routine. After a $900bn plan was signed into law in December, President-elect Biden outlined his plan for another $1.9tn Thursday night. His plan calls for:   – Direct payments of $1,400 to most Americans, bringing the total relief to $2,000, including December’s $600 payments.   – Increasing the federal, per-week unemployment benefit to $400 and extending it through…
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  Weekly Recap   Welcome to 2021. Apparently this year is going to start where 2020 left off, but with a touch of insurrection added to the mix. Wednesday was undoubtedly surreal, and on top of what we saw on T.V, it proved to be the deadliest day to date in the U.S. since the CVOID crisis started. But none of this could keep the market down. On Thursday the NASDAQ had the best day…
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