Category Archives: Investing

Market Recap

Posted on September 24, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   Market’s swooned earlier in the week on the Evergrande story, but didn’t stay down long. The prospect of a large company with a huge amount of debt possibly defaulting had echoes of Lehman all over it. But is that actually the case? More below.   But one thing was sure, it didn’t take much for investors to show signs of panic. For example, the number of put options bought on Monday…
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Market Recap

Posted on September 17, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   Most equity markets finished lower on the week, although commodity prices were generally higher. Gold and silver struggled with the stronger dollar.   There were two big macro reports. The first concerned inflation. The Consumer Price Index for August was up +5.25% year-over-year, down from +5.37% the previous month. Core was up +4.00%, as you can see below.     While you can’t tell from the chart above, this report was…
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Market Recap

Posted on September 3, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

Market Recap   It’s September already? Really? Well, August closed on a positive note and the S&P has now been in the black for seven months in a row. Not quite rarified air, but it’s getting there, as you can see below.       So naturally we must be due for a correction? Maybe. Septembers tend to trade on the soft side, but the historical performance after seven month win streaks for the S&P…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 27, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   Equity markets rallied this week on a couple things. First, Fed Chairman Powell basically said nothing to upset the applecart at the annual Jackson Hole meeting (more below). And some optimists started making the case that the spread of the delta variant was peaking. Looking at the charts below you have to squint pretty hard to see that…     …but maybe the dip in the pace of hospital admissions in…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 20, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   You probably can’t pin this week’s losses in the stock market to any one particular thing. Soft retail sales, signs the Fed wants to make policy a little less generous, bear market in Hong Kong, COVID, Afghanistan, low volume summer trading? Take your pick. All probably conspired to some degree to weigh on sentiment if nothing else.   From an economic perspective, the highlight (or lowlight, depending on your perspective) was…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 13, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   A generally decent week for the equity markets as the earnings data came in strong and most economic reports were solid. The market hasn’t focused on the deteriorating COVID news for some time now. The U.K. is viewed as something of a bellwether, and even there case counts have ticked higher again. So far the key has been that mortality rates haven’t moved significantly higher, raising the hope that vaccines have…
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Market Recap

Posted on August 6, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   More summer lull activity this week, but Friday’s jobs report likely sets up one of the main themes for this fall – when will the Fed start to slow their asset purchases?   Over the last few months there has been a lot of debate about how strong the economy will need to be to start the Fed on the path towards pulling back some of the COVID crisis support measures….
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Market Recap

Posted on July 30, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   Something of a bumpy week with a number of crosscurrents. A Fed meeting, corporate earnings reports, and another clamp down by the Chinese authorities on some private firms all grabbed investor’s attention. Some of the highlights:   Growth Moderates – Supply Concerns Weigh   The first estimate for second quarter GDP growth was released this week. This initial number came in at +6.5%, 1.9% below estimates (chart below).     The…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 23, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   A good week for most equity markets with the exception of some emerging countries, particularly China. There is definitely a summer lull type of feeling to the last few weeks, but earnings results are trickling out and the numbers are coming in solid. Through Thursday roughly 18% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings. As you can see below, 86% beat earnings estimates and earnings are up +99% y/y, helped…
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Market Recap

Posted on July 16, 2021 by Gemmer Asset

  Market Recap   There were a couple main economic reports for the week.   Consumers still have cash and are willing to spend it. Retail sales came in at + 0.6% month-over-month in June versus expectations for a fall of -0.4%. Year-over-year growth is running at over +15%, as you can see below.     The other biggie was the consumer price inflation (CPI) number for June. It was up +5.4% year-over-year, above expectations…
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